A populated northeastern state, New York has uninterruptedly voted Democratic beginning in 1988, and has done so by at least 15% since 1992. Two examples of the Empire State's strong Democratic status was in 2004, when John Kerry carried the state over incumbent Republican George W. Bush (despite the latter's response to the September 11 attacks, although he carried over 40% of the vote), and in 2016, when Hillary Clinton (who has resided in the state since 1999 and represented it in the Senate in the 2000s) carried over Republican Donald Trump, who is long associated with the state. Thus, New York is expected to be a safe blue state in 2024.
Polling has consistently indicated a closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, with some news outlets characterizing it as a possible battleground state, but Democrats still consistently led by margins larger than the margin of errors of the polls, so most news organizations still classify New York as Solid Democratic. Before he withdrew from the race, polls showed Biden having a lead of around 10 points or so, which is substantially closer than the margin seen in previous elections.[2][3]