Back فخ ثوقيديدس Arabic Trampa de Tucídides Catalan Thukydides-Falle German Trampa de Tucídides Spanish Thukydidese lõks Estonian دام توسیدید Persian Piège de Thucydide French Trappola di Tucidide Italian トゥキュディデスの罠 Japanese 투키디데스의 함정 Korean
The Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.[1] The term exploded in popularity in 2015 and primarily applies to analysis of China–United States relations.[2]
Supporting the thesis, Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that, among a sample of 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3] That study, however, has come under considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion on the value of the Thucydides Trap concept—particularly as it relates to a potential military conflict between the United States and China—remains divided.[4][5][6][7][8]
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
JSTORwas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Rachman, Gideon (18 December 2018). "Year in a Word: Thucydides's trap". Financial Times. Retrieved 8 July 2020.
- ^
Allison, Graham (9 June 2017). "The Thucydides Trap". Retrieved 27 August 2023.
The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. Twelve of these ended in war.
- ^ Freedman, Lawrence (12 January 2022). "What the Thucydides Trap gets wrong about China". New Statesman. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ^ Mohammed, Farah (5 November 2018). "Can the US and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?". JSTOR Daily. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ^ McCormack, Win (17 March 2023). "The Thucydides Trap". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ^ Allison, Graham (24 September 2015). "The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?". The Atlantic. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
- ^ "Stop seeing US-China relations through lens of Thucydides or Cold War". South China Morning Post. 10 December 2021. Retrieved 30 July 2023.