Wikipedia:Modelling Wikipedia extended growth

Comparison of the extended growth model versus the Gompertz model, versus the logistic model, versus the actual growth

This essay considers issues about projecting the long-term growth of Wikipedia in terms of article count, including growth promoted by many other types of articles, beyond the traditional encyclopedia and major pop-culture articles. The extended-growth model considers factors that will create new articles, beyond the current 6.9 million articles (live count).

The growth of Wikipedia, although reduced, is not slowing as much as predicted in 2007, but not skyrocketing either, as predicted in 2005. The extended model predicted Wikipedia as exceeding a total of 3 million articles in mid-August 2009, rather than at year-end (occurred 17 August 2009). The model predicted the 3.5 millionth article would be added in mid-September 2010, but it occurred on 12 December 2010 instead.

Wikipedia size & users
English articles6,869,353
Average revisions20.18
Articles per day+3295
Total wiki pages61,267,071
Total admins855
Total users47,829,426
UTC time12:46 on 2024-Aug-18

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